The landscape will shift in the coming year, with a number of trends reversing course and markets taking on new direction. Growth and inflation are expected to be materially lower, with a global recession in the months ahead, corporate profits will be less and margins compress, while policy rates are expected to moderate following record hikes this year. However, recession is expected to be short and imbalances contained. While many imponderables prevail, prospects are likely to improve for both economies and markets after a difficult first part of the new year. Meaningful downside for credit and equities is likely following the 2022 year-end rally, before a sustainable recovery takes hold. Consequently, economic and market prospects seem to us to be a case of down but not out.

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